Model · Who Is Actually Good

Power Ratings / market-calibrated, in points

Every rating is denominated in point-spread terms: a +5 team should beat a +1 team by 4 on a neutral field. Weights aren't opinions — they're fit to 2018–2024 closing lines by ridge regression. Validated out-of-sample on 2025.
as of week 23
v0.2
Model version
.891
Corr vs closing spread
2.13
MAE vs spread (pts)
63.5%
SU winners (mkt 65.6%)
Tier Board
Rating Table click headers to sort · component scores are point contributions
Model vs Market narrative signal, not picks — big gaps usually mean the market knows something (injuries, rest) the numbers don't
MatchupModel lineMarket closeΔLeanFinal
How It Works