Matchups · This Week

This Week / our number vs the market

The FD Line is our projected spread. It publishes Tuesday morning and is never edited. Below, it sits next to where the market is now.

Calibration how our number has behaved, 2021–2025. Not a win/loss record.

When the FD Line made a team…	Games	Won outright	Covered

Straight-up win rate climbs with the size of the favorite, which is what a well-calibrated number looks like. Cover rate sits near 50% because we do not beat the closing line, and we do not claim to.

FOOTBALL DASHBOARDS · This Week.
The FD Line is the per-game spread from our FD Power Ratings, with quarterback availability, byes and home field applied. It is a different number from FDER, our team efficiency rating. Lines are shown in book convention, and every market snapshot is archived with a timestamp.

This is not a picks page. Our number does not beat the closing line: over 1,424 games it graded 51.0% against the close, a coin flip. What it does do is move the market. Bet at our published number and the line has come to us 62% of the time. That is the only claim we make.