Matchups · This Week

This Week / our number vs the market

The FD Line is our projected spread from the market-calibrated power rating model. We publish it Tuesday morning and never edit it. What you see below is that number against where the market actually sits.

Calibration how our number has actually behaved, 2021–2025 — not a win/loss record

When the FD Line made a team…	Games	Won outright	Covered

Straight-up win rate climbs cleanly with the size of the favorite — that is what a well-calibrated number looks like. Cover rate sits near 50% because we do not beat the closing line, and we do not claim to.

FOOTBALL DASHBOARDS — This Week.
The FD Line is the per-game spread from our FD Power Rating model (nine opponent-adjusted team components ridge-fit to 2018–2024 closing spreads, plus quarterback availability, bye and home-field). It is a different number from FDER, our team efficiency rating on the landing page. Lines shown in book convention. Market data via nflverse; every market snapshot is archived with a timestamp.

This is not a picks page. Our number does not beat the closing line and we have never said otherwise — over 1,424 games it graded 51.0% against the close, which is a coin flip. What it does do is move the market: bet at our published number and the line has come to us 62% of the time. That is the claim, and it is the only one we make.